This research from Public Wise reveals that the War in Gaza is one of many issues, alongside the economy, abortion, and immigration, shaping voter opinions as we head into the 2024 election. The goal with this project was to determine how many voters, and who, are at risk of sitting out this election, and explore whether there are effective messages that could persuade them to remain in the electorate.

PSB Insights worked with Public Wise to gain an in-depth understanding of key groups in Michigan and beyond. We designed and conducted online communities, facilitating impactful conversations with Jewish, Arab-American, Muslim, Gen Z, and Black progressive voters about the conflict and its influence on their voting decisions. Additionally, we developed and implemented a Michigan-specific survey to provide a focused look at these often-underrepresented groups.

Key Findings from the Public Wise report include:

• 11% of 2020 Biden voters nationally are not committed to Biden for the 2024 election, but have persuadable vote intentions. We define someone as having “persuadable vote intentions” if they are not currently planning to vote for Biden but still planning to vote, or are considering voting and are undecided about for whom.
• Another 9% of 2020 Biden voters are not committed to Biden and have less persuadable vote intentions. We define individuals as having “less persuadable vote intentions” if they plan not to vote or plan to vote for someone other than Biden (Trump or a third party candidate).
• Approval of Biden’s handling of the War in Gaza is lower among Biden 2020 voters who are not yet committed to voting for him. Among 2020 Biden voters, disapproval of Biden’s handling was largely due to wanting the US to stay out of the conflict or perceptions that he is favoring the Israelis too much.
• The War in Gaza is unlikely to be the centrally defining issue driving overall lack of commitment to Biden in November. Still, it is one important issue among a bundle of issues, including abortion, cost of living, and protecting democracy, that are shaping voters’ November 2024 intentions. For certain voters, the War in Gaza may constitute a tipping point issue.
• Younger voters are more likely to cast their vote solely based on the War in Gaza, but they are also more open to casting their vote based on other single issues. Among 2020 Biden voters, young voters have the lowest level of support for Biden going into 2024 compared to other age brackets. A plurality of young 2020 Biden voters indicated that cost of living and inflation is the issue that could influence their vote.

To learn more about the findings and their implications for voter mobilization efforts, be sure to check out the full report from Public Wise here.